The USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction Project (SAFRR) and its predecessor the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) for tsunami modeling associated with the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) will be asked to provide technical assistance as listed below: Provide estimations of tsunami forces on submerged and floating objects near southern California port facilities caused by a magnitude 9 earthquake in the eastern Aleutians. This task will require coupling hydrodynamic forcing from the tsunami scenarios FY11 tsunami modeling of select harbors with force and discrete object transport models; Provide predictions of tsunami scour and erosion potential at southern California coastal infrastructure that would be caused by a magnitude 9 earthquake in the eastern Aleutians. This task will require coupling hydrodynamic forcing from the tsunami scenarios FY11 tsunami modeling of select harbors with sediment transport models; Provide high-resolution wave height and inundation calculations for specific coastal regions chosen by the USGS in southern and central California, and Hawaii, employing the same hydrodynamic modeling techniques used for the areas modeled for the tsunami scenario in FY11. The USGS is aware of no other source that can provide the above. Therefore, it intends to make an award to SCEC, unless it is contacted by any vendor who believes they can provide the required tsunami modeling. Vendors are invited to contact the Contracting Specialist,
[email protected] no later than 12:00 PM EST, Wednesday, August 12, 2012 with an affirmative answer. SOLE SOURCE JUSTIFICATION STATES THE FOLLOWING PART: The following information is provided to demonstrate the proposed contractors unique qualifications: The goal of the USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction Project (SAFRR) and its predecessor, the MultiHazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is to increase societys resilience to natural hazards. Toward that end, we create plausible disaster scenarios for emergency managers and others to use for planning purposes. For the tsunami scenario, we are working with the California Geological Survey, the California Emergency Management Agency, and other emergency management agencies to produce a plausible scenario for a tsunami that damages the California coast. The Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California produced the California State tsunami inundation maps. In order to partner successfully with the State, we need to be consistent with their previous products (for reasons discussed below). Thus, we need to use the same tsunami modeling techniques and input data, which have already been successfully tested. In FY11, the SCEC team provided tsunami modeling of southern California for the MHDP/SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, including detailed modeling of southern California ports. Meetings between SAFRR and its stakeholders, including the U.S. Coast Guard, highlighted the need for additional tsunami modeling; this includes extending the geographic models to additional areas in southern California plus some areas in central and northern California and Hawaii, and also extending the types of modeling efforts to include prediction of tsunami scour and erosion and an estimate of the forcing on submerged and floating structures. To be comparable to the previous efforts, the additional geographic areas should be modeled using the same techniques as the FY11 work. The additional modeling techniques (erosion and forcing on structures) will build on the previous modeling in the southern California ports, coupling with the results from the previous modeling efforts. Because the SCEC team provided the previous modeling, they have a deep understanding of the previous results and techniques and are uniquely qualified to carry out the additional work. SCEC also has the following unique qualifications that are considered essential for the required work: 1. SCEC has extensive experience in managing complex, interdisciplinary research spanning earthquake system science. This organizational expertise is not otherwise available to the Government. 2. SCEC has organized detailed research on earthquake process, such as rupture dynamics and coseismic deformation that comprise the critical component of the tsunami scenario exercise. 3. SCEC at USC has the team that produced the California State tsunami inundation maps. The USGS work needs to be consistent with the state maps, so we need to use the same group that produced them. This makes them uniquely qualified. 4. SCEC has the team that produced the FY11 hydrodynamic modeling for the tsunami scenario Each of the modeling tasks needed in FY12 require the same techniques as in FY11 applied to additional geographic areas or the same techniques coupled with additional techniques. This makes the SCEC team uniquely qualified. In addition, SCEC has the following rare qualifications that are considered essential for the required work: 5. SCEC has substantial, specialized knowledge of the southern California developed coastal zone, where effects of a significant trans-Pacific tsunami will be evaluated, especially as it relates to the impact on the complex local infrastructure. 6. SCEC has extensive experience with and access to world experts in computer modeling of tsunamis related to wave generation and the hydrodynamic effects of wave breaking, dispersion, and overland flow. The combination of the 6 essential qualifications above makes SCEC uniquely qualified to carry out the work. The cost to the USGS to develop new computer programs to simulate tsunamis is approximately $500K over 5 yearsclearly this will not satisfy the agencys timeframe requirements for this important mission. Alternatively, the cost of licensing, support, and modifying existing, generalized hydrodynamic models and the necessary numerical validation is approximately $100K over 2 years (with no guarantee of success) plus an additional cost to the USGS estimated at $300k ($100k/year for 3 person-years at the post-doctoral level) for comparable expertise from another source, for a total of $400k. The total minimum cost, therefore, is $400K with unacceptable attendant risk and delays, compared to the $118 K estimated for the lifetime of this contract with implementation. Switching to new numerical modeling techniques to estimate the impact of the scenario tsunami source would be likely to introduce inconsistencies between the modeling results calculated in FY11 and FY12. These inconsistencies would make it impossible to compare the impacts of the scenario tsunami between the sites modeled in FY11 and FY12 and would make it impossible to know which areas are hardest hit by the scenario tsunami. Thus, the estimates of physical damage, economic and social consequences of the tsunami would be biased toward the areas modeled by whichever fiscal years model overestimates impacts with respect to the other. That would undermine the utility of the scenario for emergency planning and hazards mitigation by our partner organizations. In effect, these inconsistencies would undermine the entire tsunami scenario project and waste the rest of the USGS resources assigned to this project. If a new set of numerical modeling techniques is used then it will be critical to repeat the modeling of a large percentage of the sites modeled during FY11 in order to assess the relationship between the results gained from the two modeling approaches. That would require additional time and resources for the FY12 modeling effort. Any additional time put into the modeling effort will delay the later stages of the tsunami scenario project in which we use the or results of the modeling to estimate physical damage and economic and social impacts in order to understand the required emergency response and methods to mitigate tsunami impacts on the U.S. These delays would prevent the tsunami scenario project from meeting the timelines previously agreed upon with partner organizations and thus would prevent us from meeting our mission critical goals. The group assembled by SCEC also used the same methods for determining the State of California Tsunami Inundation Maps. By using the same methods, our tsunami scenario will be consistent with those maps and will provide a product with a consistent message to the users and the public. Failure to provide a consistent message will undermine the confidence users and the public have in both the state inundation maps and the USGS scenario document.