Description
Notice of intent to negotiate a sole source contract with Oregon State University, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife for NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service to provide consulting services and expert data assembly, analysis and reduction for assembling a sediment budget for streams of the John Day basin. Period of performance is from date of award until 9/30/2008. Background and Objectives The Center provides scientific and technical support to NMFS for the management, conservation, and wise-use of the Northwest region’s marine and anadromous resources. To address some of these needs the Conservation Biology Division formed the Mathematical Biology and Systems Monitoring Program to develop, in tandem with the existing Salmon Science Programs and Salmon Recovery Planning Teams, quantitative tools for assessing population and habitat status and recovery potential and progress. One of the major projects undertaken by this program is the development of a large-scale comprehensive monitoring program to be implemented in three Columbia River sub-basins. The primary objective of this project is the development of a rule set to guide the implementation of large-scale monitoring and evaluation programs across the Columbia River basin. The project will accomplish this goal through the quantitative assessment of status and effectiveness monitoring and evaluation approaches. The component of the overall project described herein specifically addresses the issue of developing quantitative methods to model the extent and impact of major sources of sediment supply to large interior Columbia River basin watersheds.2.0 SERVICES REQUIRED Support the development of a strong research effort to quantify the sources and impacts of natural and anthropogenic sediment supply to stream channels by key sediment delivery mechanisms within the John Day basin, Oregon. In particular, this study will develop spatially explicit quantitative estimates of average annual sediment mobilization by landslides and gully erosion within the John Day basin. The study will also assess the relationship between the estimated sediment delivery rate by landslides and gully erosion with both natural (e.g., geology and slope) and anthropogenic influences (e.g., land cover and roads). This order consists of seven specific tasks. 2.1 Specific Technical Services 2.1.1. Review existing geologic information and develop a detailed sampling design. Begin with the Landslide Overview Map of the Conterminous United States (Radbruch-Hall et al., 1982, US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1183) as an initial hypothesis for spatial landslide frequency within the John Day basin. Review existing geologic maps and reports to refine/modify this initial landscape classification. Develop a stratified random sampling design based on the resulting landscape classification. 2.1.2. Do a preliminary screening-level landslide inventory using recent digital orthophoto quadrangles (DOQs) and refine sampling design, if needed. Using recent DOQs, do a quick landslide inventory for a sample of at least 50 6th-field HUCs (or fewer if many landslides are found) to assess the number and variability in spatial density (patchiness) of landslides that can readily be identified in the imagery and to evaluate whether the landscape classification scheme (sampling strata) correctly capture large-scale variability in landslide frequency. Based on the results of the screening survey, estimate the target sample size and modify the sampling design as needed. It is anticipated that the final sample for detailed analysis will include a minimum of 20 6th-field HUCs. 2.1.3. Conduct detailed landslide inventory using a time series of aerial photo analysis. Based on the resolution and spatial coverage of available aerial photographic imagery, select target dates (years) for detailed analysis. The intent is to obtain imagery at 10-15 year intervals for the period 1950-2005, although it is anticipated that the dates and resolution of available imagery will vary among sites. To the extent possible, stereographic imagery will be used to enhance identification of land surface features. Landslide features will be digitized on-screen onto a recent DOQ basemap and classified by the land cover type in which they originate (forest, clearcut, other nonforest, road-related [within a 50-m buffer from road centerlines]). Landslide features will also be classified by type to the extent that this information can be determined from the imagery. At a minimum, linear channelized or channel-forming features (e.g., debris flows or gullies) will be distinguished from non-channelized features (e.g., planar failures or rotational slumps). 2.1.4. Conduct field sampling to validate air photo identification and estimate landslide volumes. Conduct field visits to a random sample of identified landslide features to confirm air photo interpretations and collect field measurements to estimate sediment volumes. Depending upon the number and spatial distribution of landslides identified in the air photo analysis, at least 50 to 60 features will be targeted for sampling. A clustered sampling strategy may be used to minimize travel time between field sites. Field observations will include land surface slope, land cover type within which the failure occurred (forested, clearcut, naturally non-forested) and presence of roads in proximity (up- or down-slope) to landslide features. In addition, field sample a set of locations where landslides are expected (by landform and landuse) to estimate misclassification rate of photo interpretation. 2.1.5. Estimate sediment volume of mapped slides in inventoried sub-basins. Develop regression equation to estimate landslide volume for all slides mapped from photos. Use multivariate regression to estimate landslide volumes based on the relationship of field-measured volumes to photo-measured landslide areas and landscape characteristics (e.g., bedrock lithology, surface slope, land cover). 2.1.6. Estimate magnitude of sediment supply from landslides and gully erosion throughout the John Day basin. Based on landslide inventory for sampled sub-basins, modify landscape classification (landslide frequency map units) as appropriate. Develop a GIS algorithm to extrapolate estimated sediment supply from landslides and gully erosion from the sampled sub-basins to the entire John Day basin. Estimate sediment supply rates for each combination of landslide frequency map unit and land cover type. 2.1.7. Prepare summary report. Prepare a written report or manuscript summarizing the approach, methods, and results of the landslide sediment budget analysis. The report shall present estimated sediment supply from both landslides and surface erosion in map and tabular form and shall discuss the relationship of sediment supply from both sources with both land cover and natural landscape attributes. This requirement concerns an extension of existing work, so reflects considerable cost efficiencies through continuity of activities. Questions concerning proposed contract may be submitted to Melvin Fondue. This is a simplified acquisition with an estimated value of less than $100,000