Developing a Proactive Framework for Adaptive Management of Chronic Wasting Disease on the National Elk Refuge

The tasks to be performed under this agreement are as follows: 1) Develop a Bayesian state-space model to support adaptive management of CWD in the Jackson elk population. The model will provide a framework for using multiple sources of data to make reliable forecasts tempered by rigorous estimates of uncertainty. 2) Use the model and existing data (e.g., population surveys and classifications) to determine the potential impact of CWD on the National Elk Refuge/Jackson Hole elk herd. Estimate the relationship between prevalence of CWD (proportion of elk infected) and the rate of population growth of the Jackson Hole elk populations using at least two sources of data: herd-specific recruitment and population data for elk that winter in Jackson Hole and summer in a wide variety of different locations; and survival data from free-ranging elk naturally infected with CWD in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado (the only current source for such data).